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Unknown A
All right, let's get to Germany, shall we? Because there were some fascinating elections that happened over there. Shall we put this up there on the screen. The German election official. Fried. Okay, you want to help me with the pronunciation? Is it Friedrich or Friedrich?
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Unknown B
I'm going to go with Friedrich.
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Unknown A
I'm going to go with Friedrich. All right, Friedrich Mertz. The Germans are going to crucify me for this. Is set to become Germany's next chancellor according to the exit polls and now the federal election results that we have learn. So this is actually super interesting because there's a couple of narrative things that are happening. You'll recall that J.D. vance and Elon Musk had been supporters and or meeting with the AfD, the alternative for Germany, the more right wing party there that's very against immigration. This guy Friedrich Mertz, what I've read about him, he's kind of almost a Washington type figure. He was in politics and then he left to become a lobbyist and then he came back after he became filthy rich, almost in a Trump way where he's like, now I've made my money and what I'm gonna do is I'm gonna save Germany from the AfD.
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Unknown A
That was really his goal. His goal was to transform the center right party into a party that could subsume the concerns around immigration and around Ukraine, the economy, et cetera, into his party and to keep the AFD out of power. And that's kind of what it seems the coalition government that he will form is trying to do at the same time even get to all of that. The results themselves are fascinating because it is a German basically affirmation of the same trend across the continent and in my opinion, here in the United States too. Let's put this on the screen, friend. Ryan Graduski pointed out, if you look at this election in Germany, the CDU is the second worst showing in the party's history. Right. That's what Mercer's party is.
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Unknown B
Those are the ones that came in first but performed poorly compared to their history.
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Unknown A
Exactly. SPD is the worst result for them since 1887. The Greens just had their second best showing ever. The AfD, the right wing party, just had their best showing ever. And then the FDP is the second worst showing ever. Now, in American speak, we can look at the greens and the AfD and say what you've got the left and the right, which are either their best or their second best showing ever. Now, that doesn't mean that they're going to be in power, because what's happened is that the CDU is gonna form a coalition with an alternative party to make sure that the AfD doesn't have access to those high government officials. But I still think that's pretty important in terms of looking at the explosion of support both for the Greens and for the AfD. And in both you actually see similar forces that are here in the United States and across the continent.
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Unknown A
So for example, in France, where we saw the left wing Socialist Party that did very well, while the far right National Front was doing very well, Macron is completely under siege right now. We all know that whenever he leaves, whatever comes next, it will not look like Mr. Centrist that is over there. This guy, again, I don't wanna claim that he's right wing or any. He's very pro NATO, he's very pro Ukraine. When he's conservative, he's conservative in the sense that our George W. Bush types are. Was like, we need to clean up the debt crisis over here. But he's very much more willing to talk about immigration and to change some of the immigration policy in Germany. He's much more of like a stronger German, stronger Germany that will break away from the United States. But do you want to weigh in on that before I go any more?
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Unknown A
Just because I think that the surge of AfD in the Greens is the most important story out of this election.
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Unknown B
The general orientation of the Sudanese party is like immigration restrictionists, but pro Ukraine. That's kind of their, that's kind of their thing. You know, just put the previous element just back up on the screen. There was one other thing that I wanted to note which will feed into the conversation about like the far right and the far left in terms of the German election context. BSW is interesting too. So this is this break off party started by this person who was previously part of the like far left party and then positioned themselves as being like left on most issues and less like pro Ukraine, but pro immigration restriction. So you could kind of put them also in the bucket of these like far left and far right, you know, upstarts, etc. And then, you know, with the AFD, we'll show the map in just a minute.
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Unknown B
But there's a huge geographic divide. I mean, you look at these maps and it's east and West Germany just like to a T. So that's, you know, very interesting dynamic there as well. And they performed basically where the polls had them performing. So it doesn't seem like Elon or J.D. vance's insertion into this election really particularly made a difference in either direction.
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Unknown A
Yeah. I mean, that would look in general, if you're abroad and you're voting because how J.D. vance told you to, what are you doing? You should be voting based on how you think for your own country.
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Unknown B
Yeah. And they've got plenty of issues. A little bit of a backlash because they did not perform as high as they had at some point in some polls. Anything. There was a little bit of a backlash. But I mean, I think the best you can say is it didn't seem to make that much of a difference.
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Unknown A
Nor should it. Why should it? You know, it's like you got. People should vote on your own concerns. I'm not gonna think what you care about at our elections. If you look actually, though, in terms of the change since 20, absolutely fascinating. So the AfD has experienced a 10.4% increase in its vote share since 2021. And the Greens actually lost a little bit, but still had their second best showing ever. The bsw, the CDU and the left all experienced modest grains, but it's really the decline of the spd, the centrist party, the center left Liberal Party, that is the one that is most like the big headline out of this election. But what you're watching is the basically collapse of the center and Europe is grappling. They're like, what are we doing here? And I think that's really interesting. So you pointed out that map.
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Unknown A
Why don't we put that up there on the screen? We'll go to the next part, please. This one, by the way, keep in mind, this was apparently from the European elections, European parliament elections in 2024. Not for the Bundestag, but it still shows exactly what you're talking about, the divide between the two of east and West Germany. I am not a scholar or anything. I did read a book once which talked about this, about how basically about how the reunification of Germany is one of the least discussed, like major political elements of political understanding in the west. As in, it really wasn't that long ago, it was only like 30 something years ago. And the clear stark economic differences between the two are really important because it gets to the heart of industrialization being Western, how European you feel, how you feel about Russia and Ukraine, Communism and all of that.
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Unknown A
And I mean, you're talking about generations really that were split apart. So it does make sense as to how that would be. Also economically, as I understand, is very, very different in terms of how they fare even today, some 30 some years later. Which again makes complete sense if you were to split a country up for decades and then just throw them back together under different economic models. But it is manifesting itself very importantly politically. That was actually a Merkel ideological project before the mass migration into Europe during the refugee crisis. And a lot of German center right people blame her for kind of splitting apart and opening up this can of worms. But whatever it is, it's, it's been a decade long march I think to where we are right now.
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Unknown B
Oh at least. Yeah. And I mean the east West Germany thing is, is really fascinating. I mean eastern Germany is more rural, less developed also. I mean there was kind of a concerted effort from the Allies to destroy some of the industrial base in East Germany. You know, the bombing of Dresden was devastating to the prospects, the economic prospects of East Germany, etc. And so yeah, you can see the very long hangover both of World War II and obviously of the, you know, reunification and how recently that is in terms of history. So that certainly plays a huge role here in terms of Germany. Part of what makes this election so important and interesting is there are few countries that were as impacted by the Ukraine war as Germany. They really, their economy really was quite reliant on cheap gas from Russia.
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Unknown A
Yes.
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Unknown B
And so, you know, with, without that, energy prices have risen significantly. Huge cost of living issues. So you've got that, you have these longer term structural issues with the German economy where they really kind of place some of the wrong bets. They did not get in on the technologies of the future. Right. Germans are known for their like industrial production and for their auto industry. And the auto industry really just stayed set on gas powered cars. Really kind of turned up their nose at EVs. And unlike here, you know, in Germany, first of all, they were selling a lot of cars into the Chinese market. And China now has their own burgeoning, very successful auto industry, including the best EVs in the entire world. And so that's been a problem for Germany. They really had been reliant on that, that Chinese market. And so there were these longer term structural inabilities to adapt to modern environment.
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Unknown B
Then you have the high energy prices. So they're going through a deindustrialization that's kind of similar to, you know, what we went through post NAFTA or post the permanent normal trading relations with China. And that's putting an economic squeeze on. And then you layer on top of that, I mean truly very, very significant levels of migration. Quite a lot larger per capita than even what we've experienced here where their percent of the foreign born population has gone up to 20%. So you can see how all of these things, to be honest with you, when you put all those factors together, it's a wonder that AFD isn't actually outright meeting.
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Unknown A
I know.
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Unknown B
And if it wasn't the fact that they're out there, like actively flirting with Nazi slogans and plotting some of them to overthrow the government and all of these sorts of things, they probably would be doing even better than they are right now.
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Unknown A
Yeah, I will say I think they have some. I feel complicated, I guess, about AFD in that they're a little bit less like pro innovation, I guess, if that I would like for them to be. Because it's like you just said, they're very much focused on migration. I think that's fine. I think immigration is probably the most important issue for them. But if you people wanna be independent, you need to make some shit. You need to stop being completely reliant on us. That's my biggest problem, is that they really don't have any, like, real vision for their own economy or for basically how to reverse the managed decline of the last 40 years, which it turns out also, I just can't let this go. What you were talking about with the Russian gas, the German miracle was fake. It was entirely built on cheap gas from Russia.
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Unknown A
The moment that that got turned off, they went into a deep slide and their economy continues. But let's also put that with the problems that this new guy faces. Put this up there, please, on the screen. This is C5, the statement here from the next prime minister. He says, quote, I am communicating closely with a lot of prime ministers and heads of state. This is Mehrs said, heads of eu. And for me, it is an absolute priority to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that we achieve independence from the US step by step. I never thought I would need to say something like this on television, but after the latest statements made by Donald Trump last week, it is clear that the Americans, at any case, these Americans, this administration mostly don't care about the future of Europe one way or the other. That's correct.
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Unknown A
And so we wish you the best, Mr. Merce. I wish you independence. I hope you guys do well. You can take over the rest of the continent. It's not like there's all that much for us.
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Unknown B
There seems to me to be the right that he's thinking about things correctly.
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Unknown A
Yeah, I completely agree. I go, listen, you have your own shit to deal with in terms of your managed decline economy, you have mass migration problems, you are less important to the United States. Than you have ever been in Germany's entire history. Why should we care about you and continue to underwrite all of your security architecture and keep flying to the Munich security conference? Like you just said, the only reason that we should have even cared about Germany previously was for cars. Well, guess what? Now that China's a net exporter of cars, they're eating the Germans lunch even in their own economy. Something like 10% of cars in Germany sold are from China. It's unbelievable. So they have massive structural problems to think about. I think the only joke that's going on here is that they continue to try and rope us in because they know they can't do anything without the backstop, according to them, of Americans.
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Unknown A
This is where I wanted to get Ukraine in C4, please up on the screen. The European leaders are currently drafting a quote, peacekeeping plan for Ukraine. But American forces have to serve as the backstop. Why? Because according to them, Russia both would not be afraid enough of French and of UK troops that are doing peacekeeping in Ukraine. But more so, they literally don't have the resources to even sustain 30,000 troops in Ukraine without the intelligence and support of the United States. So their current plan, which I think is bullshit, is 30,000 European peacekeepers. No US soldiers directly on the ground, but instead we basically pay for all of the support stuff in Poland and on the NATO borders that surround it. So this apparently is something that probably falls in line with this new German Chancellor. It's unclear just because the guy is very pro Ukraine and apparently even wants to send them more missiles, but at the same time has not signed on necessarily to the Macron or the Keir Starmer proposal.
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Unknown A
So there's a lot still up in the air for whatever happens with the Ukraine peace.
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Unknown B
That is definitely the case. I guess what I will say is that, you know, for the Joe Biden's, the liberals of the world who really pushed to back Ukraine, okay, I'm actually okay with that. But then pushed them to continue fighting and wanted this war and actively thwarted the early stage peace negotiations that could have come to, you know, some sort of a resolution. So everyone could have moved forward with, you know, and avoiding the mass death and destruction that we've seen. You know, for these liberals, they really have helped to provide the impetus that has led to the rise of the AfD and other FAR right parties in Europe. I mean the German example is I think really pretty clear cut because their energy prices and overall inflation were so impacted by Ukraine. I mean, yes, Covid was part of it too, but Ukraine, I think, is a really undertold part of that story because I think it's uncomfortable for liberal media.
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Unknown B
That was all in on this project, of course, as well. But you know, the Ukraine war, in terms of its impact on Europe was significantly inflationary, really contributed to the cost of living crisis and really did help to give fuel to parties like the AfD. The last thing, and I'll note here in this again, is some reporting from Dropsite is they also took advantage of Israel's genocide in Gaza and the AFT is extremely pro Israel. They have been pushing for, like Germany is a censorious place. And the place that it has been most censorious is on any sort of pro Palestinian speech. Francesca Albanese was just there and like, you know, they blocked her event and they're incredibly aggressive about effectively criminalizing any pro Palestinian speech. And AFD has really seized on that and been a part of this movement and that has also helped to bolster them.
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Unknown B
So all of these, quote unquote, like liberal wars that Biden and other. Biden is really the primary actor here because everybody was following the US's lead on this, have done nothing but to help to further break down and bolt the liberal order and bolster the far right throughout Europe.
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Unknown A
Yeah, it's completely their fault. I also tell you I'm not going to let the Greens off the hook. The Greens, it's, you know, my secondary thing. How are the Greens not winning this election? That's the crazy thing. Because the only reason that they haven't exploded in popularity is that many Germans are still pissed at them for being anti nuclear and for the denuclearization of the country which led to this explosion in reliance on Russian gas. So Greens, if you're listening, if you had just reversed your policy on nuclear or if you at least apologize, come forward and ask for that. You could easily, I think, have won that election because Germans are liberal. I mean, look at them, their social attitudes, the way that they think about the continent even, yes, on migration. But they're way more permissive than even we are. They're much more polite.
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Unknown A
They're very, very into what you were saying. The censorious. Their post World War II censor stuff on the books is nuts. That's another thing that annoys me about the AfD, the Israel stuff, is that the laws on the books in Germany today are basically meant to prevent, according to them, the rise of any like new Nazi party. But they use it to basically ban anything that they deem socially unacceptable. Famously, they would ban like Tom Cruise for Scientology, stuff like that. The laws are just incredibly expansive and you can use them against anything. So, for example, they've been used in the past against right wing activists and now they're using me against these Palestine folks. But to cheer on being censorious or it's just you're leading to your own destruction. That's what keeps the center alive in Germany is a lot of the managing of media and of public opinion.
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Unknown A
It's part of the reason why our country's a lot more raucous, I think, is that, yes, even with all of our free speech problems and all of that, it's still way more free place than most countries in Europe. We're allowed to have much more raucous debates than anybody else.
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Unknown B
All right. Get to burn on this show, even.
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Unknown A
Oh yeah, that's nothing compared to what if we were German, we would be going at it. I can't imagine.
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Unknown B
I admire the person in that regard. You know, the Brits, there's the, like, the way their interviewers are so aggressive.
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Unknown A
What's that guy?
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Unknown B
You don't get feelings hurt in the same way. I really. I respect that, you know.
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Unknown A
Who's that guy from the BBC? Andrew something.
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Unknown B
I know who you're talking about, man.
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Unknown A
He's good. Yeah, the guy with the glasses and all that. And he just. He just gives it to you. I love it.
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Unknown B
I mean, this is part of why Piers Morgan is so successful, because he. Yeah, he has these, like. They're all calling each other names and.
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Unknown A
Like, look, as much as I.
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Unknown B
You're a scumbag. You're a piece of shit. And then there's just like. Invites him right back on the show again.
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Unknown A
Let me just say that, as people know, I hate Europe, but let me tell you this, the UK has the best electoral system I think around, because what happens when you lose an election? What happens? Fuck off. You know all these people, David Cameron. Yeah. You get to big comeback as your little. He was like the secretary, whatever the Secretary of State equivalent is. But most of the time. Gordon Brown. Fuck off. You know, all these other leaders, if you lose an election, you're done. Most of the time, they completely recycle. Liz Truss, she's here in Washington begging for attention at CPAC in London. She's a joke. I love.
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Unknown B
It's a joke that we invite her here.
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Unknown A
Yeah, you're right. I love how when you lose there, they get rid of you. Most of the time they bring in a new leader and they reinvent themselves as a party and it works. And, you know, you can have a vote of no confidence. The government can fall like this. They have elections all the time.
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Unknown B
I love, I prefer the parliamentary system. Sure, it has its drawbacks as well, but, yeah, I think it's, I think it's better than what we got.
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Unknown A
Hey, if you like that video, hit the like button or leave a comment below. It really helps get the show to more people.
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Unknown B
And if you'd like to get the full show ad free and in your inbox every morning, you can sign up@breakingpoints.com.
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Unknown A
That'S right, get the full show. Help support the future of independent media@breakingpoints.com.